2012년 3월 11일 일요일

Fear of fracking: How public concerns put an energy renaissance at risk

Fear of fracking: How public concerns put an energy renaissance at risk

BOWDEN, ALTA., AND OTTAWA— From Saturday's Globe and Mail

Chad Winters keeps his hand on his radio, politely giving orders to co-workers toiling at an oil property in a stretch of Alberta farmland.
“One tonne of 40/70,” Mr. Winters requests over the radio. “Three thirty-three, then hold till I tell you otherwise.”
Mr. Winters speaks a language few understand. He runs the show in the field when Trican Well Service Ltd. (TCW-T17.350.150.87%)is called in to perform a controversial technique used to gather oil and natural gas from impermeable rocks.

On this day, Trican is working forNAL Energy Corp.(NAE-T7.810.182.36%)near Bowden, about 100 kilometres north of Calgary. Trican is there to pump water, chemical and natural additives, and nitrogen down a well at frighteningly high pressure, with hopes of forcing fissures in the rocks thousands of metres below the surface. Sand will follow, propping open the cracks, allowing trapped oil to escape. The process is called hydraulic fracturing, better known as fracking.
Mr. Winters sits in the site’s computer van as he calls out changes to fracking fluid mixtures to his workers, eyeing a large-screen TV relaying data from above and below ground. Computer monitors manned by other team members fill the van. Mr. Winters has worked his way up through Trican; his days of spitting sand out of his teeth and keeping chemicals away from his eyes are over.
The pipes outside the van are pulsating as the pumper trucks shoot the fracking fluid down the well. The air smells of diesel exhaust due to the row of trucks powering the operation.
Then it goes quiet inside the van. Everyone focuses on their screens, watching coloured lines move their way up the graph. Pressure levels are nearing the danger zone. But finally the rock below cracks, and there’s a sense of relief in the van as chatter resumes. “That was a bit stressful,” says Lance Berg, an NAL executive on site.
The Trican crew is part of a growing army that is bringing 21st-century technology to the job of recovering crude oil and natural gas from far below the ground. Using computer-assisted drilling and fracking techniques, the energy industry is in the early stages of a revolution that has overturned decades-old assumptions about North America’s depleting oil and gas resources.
But the industry is now at a critical crossroads. It must prove that fracking is environmentally safe, before a growing public backlash stops the practice in its tracks or seriously slows development of massive new oil and gas pools trapped in shale rock and tight formations. At stake is North America’s energy renaissance, which promises the security of vast untapped local supplies previously seen as inaccessible, along with major economic spinoff effects that go far beyond direct jobs in the oil patch.
The public fear of fracking has come to encompass all the risks associated with development of shale gas and tight oil: from seepage of fracking fluids into aquifers, to methane in well water, to pollution from wastewater, and to earthquakes caused by re-injecting the wastewater underground.
Whether drilling wells and fracking is environmentally destructive remains a raging debate. A panel established by U.S. President Barack Obama last year concluded that there are “serious environmental impacts” from new high-tech oil and gas development. Industry officials insist that the risks are minimal, and say fracking’s effects are misunderstood.
At a conference this week in Houston, the panel’s chairman, John Deutch – a professor emeritus at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and former director of the Central Intelligence Agency – said the unconventional oil and gas boom offers “astonishingly important benefits” for North America. But he added a warning to the industry.
“Unless the environmental impacts associated with shale gas and oil from shale in the United States are not only acknowledged but addressed in a serious practical way,” he said, “there is a very real danger that the great benefits we should be enjoying from this unconventional production will be delayed, or even stopped, because of public concern and public opposition.”
But the Deutch panel said the industry and its government regulators have the means to reduce the risks to acceptable levels, so long as they act decisively.
The task is complicated by the fact that each well is an experiment, with its own geophysical characteristics. Regions such as Pennsylvania’s Marcellus, Texas’s Eagle Ford and Alberta’s Cardium present their own unique challenges.
As fracking undergoes greater scrutiny, a view is emerging that the most obvious and pressing threat comes from poor well construction, in which broken or ill-fitting cement well casings can allow methane gas and fluids to leak into drinking water. Industry officials say constantly improving safety practices address these risks.
But fracking is a complex business. Trican’s luck ran out shortly after the second successful frack, and what should have been a 10-hour job turned into two days. The property is in the Cardium B zone, a tricky play that stumped NAL and Trican’s engineers and geologists this round.
Between 80 and 90 per cent of frack jobs go as planned. The Bowden effort wasn’t so smooth. NAL and Trican tinkered with the frack fluid recipe. They played with pressures. They adjusted the amount of nitrogen they used. But only four or five of the 12 fracks that NAL and Trican planned worked.
Clive Mountford, an engineer at NAL, thinks of a word to describe how those days feel. “Frustrating,” he says.
Regulation and science
Across North America, energy companies are facing a shifting regulatory picture that will further complicate their world.
Several U.S. states have added new rules while others have imposed a de facto moratorium on fracking. Environmental groups say the state rules don’t go far enough and want the federal government to step in, a move the industry deeply opposes.
The Environmental Protection Agency is currently in the midst of its own major study on shale gas development that is due for completion at the end of 2013 and could set the stage for federal regulation.
In Canada, federal Environment Minister Peter Kent has asked the Council of Canadian Academies to undertake a review of the environmental impact of shale gas extraction. The independent, not-for-profit council is in the midst of that work – which involves a literature review, rather than field research – and expects to report in the latter half of 2013.
Reaction among the provinces varies. Shale gas and tight oil development is booming in British Columbia, Alberta and Saskatchewan with little additional regulatory oversight, while Quebec has imposed a moratorium while it reviews the science.
Industry associations in both Canada and the United States have published new standards for disclosure of chemicals, well construction and handling of wastewater. Industry executives feel their critics are exaggerating the risks in their determination to wean North Americans off fossil fuels.
Scientists have made some progress in studying the impacts of shale gas and tight oil development. But some researchers say far more information is needed on the long-term consequences of the intensive drilling now under way in places like Pennsylvania, North Dakota and northeastern British Columbia.
Critics have warned that the practice of injecting chemical-laced water under high pressure into the earth is high-risk, and could lead over the long term to contamination of fresh water aquifers that feed wells and municipal systems. Water contamination is fracking’s hottest issue.
An independent study released last month by the University of Texas at Austin’s Energy Institute concluded that there is no evidence that fracking fluids are tainting groundwater. It notes that fresh water aquifers are typically hundreds of metres above the gas or oil zone, separated by such dense rock that fracking is required in the first place. The university’s review, however, has been criticized as a literature search, which reviewed scientific findings and regulatory documents but contained no new fieldwork.
With his colleagues from Duke University, biologist Robert Jackson has sampled well water in the Marcellus shale area of Pennsylvania, where they have been several cases of homeowners complaining of tainted water. The Duke researchers also found no evidence of fracking fluids in the water, but are back in the field doing further sampling. Mr. Jackson isn’t ready to make categorical statements about safety.
“My view is that we’re still data limited,” the Duke biologist said in an interview. “What we need most of all is more information.”
And then there’s the EPA study on Encana Corp.’s Pavillion play in Wyoming. After homeowners complained there, the EPA undertook a study and released a preliminary report concluding that some chemicals associated with fracking had migrated into well water.
The industry – and some scientists – question the EPA’s conclusions, saying it had no baseline data for the state of the water prior to drilling, and that the government scientists had essentially found hydrocarbons in hydrocarbon-bearing areas.
The agency is reviewing the criticism and expected to come out with a final report later this year.
Water worries
While the industry insists fracking itself is safe, industry officials concede shoddy drilling, cementing, and casing techniques can lead to leaks of methane and frack fluid.
To guard against that, Talisman Energy Inc., for example, uses two or more layers of cement and steel casing to fortify the well and protect groundwater.
“That’s the real issue that regulators should be focusing on – the integrity of well design and then the integrity of well completions,” said Paul Smith, executive vice-president of Calgary-based Talisman, a company that has placed big bets on shale gas development.
While industry claims that there has been no evidence of fracking fluids contaminating groundwater, they can’t make the same assertion with regard to methane, the basic component of natural gas that has been blamed for tainting well water in dozens of cases.
Another Duke University study sampled 68 wells in Pennsylvania and New York State and found elevated methane levels that, on average, were 17 times higher than normal. However, Mr. Jackson acknowledged that the team had no sample of well water prior to drilling, and therefore could not say conclusively whether the methane was naturally occurring or had gotten into the water as a result of the drilling and fracking.
The team is now back at work, using chemical techniques to trace the origin of the methane to determine whether it is naturally occurring in the water or has migrated from deeper in the earth.
Talisman’s Mr. Smith insists that any methane found in water wells is there naturally, and dismisses dramatic scenes of homeowners setting aflame their tap water.
“The old lighting the tap [water on fire] trick – people have been able to do that a hundred of years in Pennsylvania, way before any industry oil and gas exploitation activity took place, because of the naturally occurring methane levels in different parts of Pennsylvania,” Mr. Smith said. “That’s nothing new to people.”
Talisman has drilled over 500 shale natural gas wells in North America and the company’s water tests have shown no evidence of increased methane levels owing to its activity, he said.
A major cause of concern is contamination from the wastewater retrieved from the well during drilling operations. The waste flow is a combination of “flow-back” water, which had been injected into the well, and “produced” saline water from the shale formation.
The returned water often contains high levels of suspended solids and arsenic, and exhibits high levels of radiation. A number of researchers have raised concerns about high volumes of wastewater overwhelming the capacity of local treatment facilities, or being clandestinely dumped in local streams and rivers.
The University of Texas report concluded that the potential risk from naturally-occurring contaminants is a “major concern.”
Energy companies are boosting efforts to re-use water when fracking, as a way of dealing with waste streams and to cut down on demand for fresh water supply.
One technique for disposing of wastewater is to re-inject it back underground, a practice that has raised concerns about resulting earthquakes.
On Friday, the Ohio Department of Natural Resources concluded that two tremors in December were caused by activities at re-injection sites that accept wastewater from neighbouring Pennsylvania. The state imposed new rules on re-injection operations. But Ohio did not ban the activity. Instead, it released new safety rules and vowed to monitor the companies to ensure they follow them.

Glencore Said to Express an Interest in Canada’s Viterra

Glencore International Plc (GLEN), the world’s largest listed commodities trader, has expressed an interest in Canadian grain-handler Viterra Inc. (VTA), according to a person familiar with the situation.
Other companies may also be interested in Viterra, said the person who declined to be identified because the details haven’t been made public. U.S. agricultural commodity trader and processor Cargill Inc. also has expressed an interest, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing people it didn’t identify.

Glencore Chief Executive Officer Ivan Glasenberg is looking to expand his North American grain business even as he pursues a 27.7 billion-pound ($43.4 billion) takeover of Swiss metals and coal producer Xstrata Plc. Glencore is also among companies interested in closely held grain handler Gavilon Group LLC, people familiar with the matter said March 6.
“Investors would be pleased to see they’re not missing opportunities despite the larger merger,” London-based Fairfax IS analyst John Meyer said yesterday in a telephone interview. “If Xstrata doesn’t happen, they’re getting on with growing the business anyway.”
Holly Gibney, a spokeswoman for Regina, Saskatchewan-based Viterra, declined to comment and referred back to the company’s March 9 statement in which Viterra said it had received expressions of interest from third parties. A spokesman for Baar, Switzerland-based Glencore declined to comment when contacted by Bloomberg News. Lisa Clemens, a spokeswoman for Cargill declined to comment. Glencore’s interest in Viterra was reported earlier by The Sunday Telegraph.

Wheat Monopoly

Buying Viterra would give Glencore the largest share of the Canadian grain-handling market just as the Canadian Wheat Board’s monopoly over wheat and barley grown in the west of the country comes to an end. Viterra’s share of Canadian grain- handling may rise to almost 50 percent in the next few years from 45 percent, its Chief Executive Officer Mayo Schmidt said in an interview on March 8.
The Canadian government passed a law in December that will end the monopoly and give farmers the choice to sell to other buyers as of Aug. 1. Viterra said in January it expects to increase grain volumes and earnings after the board’s control of supplies ends.
Viterra’s Sydney-traded shares jumped 30 percent to A$13.50 at 12:02 p.m. local time. Its Toronto-traded shares closed up 24 percent at C$13.58 on March 9, boosting the company’s market value to C$5.05 billion, following the statement about expressions of interest. Glencore’s Hong Kong-traded shares gained 0.3 percent to HK$50.00 at 9:34 a.m. local time.
North American food and agriculture companies have fetched a 31 percent premium on average in takeovers greater than $1 billion, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Using Viterra’s March 9 closing price, that would imply an offer for C$14.38 a share. Based on the median 10 times multiple of earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization paid in comparable deals, Viterra may command about C$17 a share, the data show.

‘Difficult Year’

Buying Viterra might help Glencore’s agricultural business to return to profit after a “difficult year,” said Fairfax’sIS’s Meyer. Moving into storage of wheat and other logistics beyond just trading grains would likely help boost margins, he said.
“We have said at the time of the IPO we would like to increase the scale of our grain business in North America,” Glasenberg said in a March 5 interview, referring to the commodity trader’s $10 billion initial public offering last May. “We will definitely look at opportunities in North America, whether Gavilon or others, we will look at everything that’s available opportunistically.”

Cotton Loss

Glencore’s 2011 adjusted earnings before interest and tax from its agricultural trading unit swung to an $8 million loss from a $659 million profit a year earlier. The company had a “one-off” cotton-trading loss, Glasenberg said March 5. Adjusted profit from Glencore’s trading of metals and minerals was $1.24 billion last year, while energy trading’s earnings were $697 million.
The Swiss company, Viterra, U.S. agricultural trader Bunge Ltd. and Japan’s Mitsui & Co. are among suitors who have expressed an interest in Omaha, Nebraska-based Gavilon, people familiar with the matter said March 6.
Viterra is based in the same province as Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc., which in 2010 fended off a $40 billion hostile bid from Australia’s BHP Billiton Ltd. The Canadian government blocked BHP’s offer, saying the sale of the world’s largest fertilizer company wouldn’t provide a “net benefit” to the country.
Under Canada’s foreign-takeover legislation, known as the Investment Canada Act, foreign acquisitions of companies with assets worth more than C$312 million ($314 million) are reviewed by the federal government to determine whether the transaction is beneficial to the nation.
The federal government should block any foreign takeover of Viterra under that law, Pat Martin, a New Democratic Party lawmaker, said by telephone on March 9.
Richard Walker, a spokesman for Industry Canada, deferred comment to colleagues at Canada’s agriculture ministry.
To contact the reporters on this story: Jesse Riseborough in London atjriseborough@bloomberg.net; Matthew Campbell in London at mcampbell39@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Simon Casey at scasey4@bloomberg.net

Silver Standard’s value waiting to be unlocked

MINING LOOKAHEAD

Silver Standard’s value waiting to be unlocked

From Monday's Globe and Mail


For bulls on silver, there is a way to play the precious metal that’s literally dirt cheap: Buy it while it’s still in the ground, at the rock bottom price of only 51 cents an ounce.
That’s the price the stock market is assigning to the huge hoard of the metal that Silver Standard Resources (SSO-T15.340.020.13%)says is likely to be found around its mine in Argentina and its other exploration sites.
Metal that is locked in ore in the ground always trades at a substantial discount to the value of pure metal above ground, because mining companies have to shoulder the large costs of extracting the metal. But the Silver Standard discount appears extreme.
Arch rival Pan American Silver(PAA-T23.390.200.86%), which has a roughly similar ore resource totalling more than 1 billion ounces of the white metal, has a stock market value that implies its silver in the ground is worth about $2 an ounce, four times as lofty.
An indication of whether Silver Standard is being valued too cheaply by the market could be available as early as Monday when the Vancouver-based company is scheduled to report fourth quarter results. Analysts will be looking at the profitability of its Pirquitas mine in Argentina as a key indicator of the company’s near term prospects, and any improvements will be greeted favourably.
Silver Standard shares tanked last year because of continuing start up difficulties at the mine. The stock, currently around $15, is less than half of its 52-week high of $34.17.
One of the bulls on the company is Adam Graf, mining analyst at Dahlman Rose & Co., a New York-based investment bank that focuses on natural resources. He estimates the firm could be worth as much as $58.15 a share if it were to fully develop its mineral properties.
Mr. Graf estimates the company trades at about 28 per cent of its asset value, compared to Pan American, considered the premier, low-risk pure silver play on the Toronto market, at about 70 per cent.
Pan American does have seven operating mines, compared to Silver Standard’s one, explaining why investors would assign it a more conservative valuation. Still, the relative valuations suggests Silver Standard has considerable upside if it’s able to close the gap with Pan American. “I think there is a tremendous amount of value there to unlock,” Mr. Graf says of Silver Standard.
Of the 11 analysts who follow Silver Standard, six rate it a “buy” and five a “hold,” according to Bloomberg. Most of the analyst price targets range from $18 to about $24 a share.
Silver Standard has been highlighting the low price the market assigns to the value of its silver resources at investor presentations. The firm arrived at the figure by calculating the market value of its stock, less the company’s cash position and liquid investments, then dividing by the number of ounces of silver in its ore.
“It’s clearly undervalued,” said John Smith, Silver Standard CEO, in a recent interview, of the company’s metal resources. He says the stock doesn’t reflect the value of its ore reserves because investors have been disappointed over the start-up difficulties at its Argentine mine. “We have to show the market we can deliver,” he says.
Silver Standard has been trying to give its stock some zip. PretiumResources, in which Silver Standard is the largest shareholder, has been set up to develop its British Columbia gold properties.
Mr. Smith said Silver Standard spent about $20-million exploring the gold properties, but its spin out of Pretium has yielded around $700-million worth of cash and stock in the gold play. Silver Standard plans to use the money to develop more of its silver prospects.