2010년 12월 31일 금요일

The Year in Review

The year of 2010 was quite eventful to many investors. The market was pretty good until the late spring. Then the flash crash gave many investors heart attack. The European sovereign debt crisis nerved many investors and will continue to do so in 2011. In fact, the PIIGS nations (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain) have even more debts to refinance in 2011 than 2010.
In the midst of high volatility in the market, there were some good opportunities. Shares of many companies bottomed in the summer of 2010 and have made huge runs since then. Many copper, metallurgical coal and silver stocks have given high double digit (if not two or three fold) returns to investors.
Draught and floods in many parts of the world have driven the food prices higher. The prices of wheat, cotton, coffee beans etc.. have risen dramatically. This, coupled with BHP’s failed hostile bid to buy Potash Corp, has made Canadian fertilizer companies such as Potash Corp of Saskatchewan and Agrium very attractive to investors.
Many countries woke up to the fact that rare earth metals are really rare. In response to the diplomatic friction between Japan and China (surrounding a Chinese fisherman detained in Japan for illegal fishing), China slowed its export of rare earth metals to Japan.  Few months later, China has announced that it will cut its export quotas to the rest of the world. Rare earth metals will continue to be key ingredients in batteries, military use and green technology.. We’ve seen shares of North American rare earth related companies jump as well.
Geopolitical Tensions
In addition to the middle east surrounding oil.. the tension between the two Koreas as well as China and the U.S. added to the world’s geopolitical tension. The Eastern Asian region is becoming even more militarized with Russia, Japan and China’s plans to spend more money in their military buildup.
Currency War
Central banks around the world engaged in quantitative easing to keep liquidity in the market. This inevitably resulted in currency volatility and race to keep their exports competitive. China and the U.S. exchanged rhetoric surrounding the value of Yuan relative to the U.S. dollar. Many countries were unhappy with the Berneke's decision to initiate another round of qunatitative easing (QE2). Germany learned a hard lesson from its historical experience about monetization of debts and it remains to be seen how monetization not just in the U.S. but many parts of the world will end.

2011?
As I mentioned earlier, European sovereign debt crisis will continue to be an issue. But it's already well known risk to the market participants.

U.S. munis (municipal bonds) can possibly pose a serious problem to the market as well in 2011. Illinois, California, New Jersey and many other states have deficit and debt problems to deal with.

Will Chinese real estate market and bad loans made to the sector come back haunt the economy in 2011? It remains to be seen.

2010년 12월 30일 목요일

Estonia Joins Euro as Currency Expands Into Former Soviet Union

Estonia tomorrow becomes the first former Soviet republic to join the euro, putting at least a temporary cap on the currency bloc’s expansion as the sovereign debt crisis ripples through Europe.
Wedged between Russia and Latvia on the Baltic Sea, Estonia will at midnight become the 17th country to switch to the currency. Gross domestic product of 14 billion euros ($19 billion) makes it the second smallest euro economy after Malta.

As Europe grapples with the financial crisis, Estonia is likely to be the last addition to the euro club for several years. Lithuania and Latvia, the next in line, are aiming for 2014 and bigger eastern countries have shied away from setting target dates.

“The euro is still generally seen as a positive for the applicant countries as long as the conversion rate is somewhat competitive,” Elisabeth Gruie, an emerging-markets strategist at BNP Paribas SA in London, said in an email. High deficits are keeping Poland out and an “inner desire for independence” is the obstacle in the Czech Republic, she said.

Debt estimated by the European Union at 8 percent of GDP in 2010 will make Estonia the fiscally soundest country in a currency bloc plagued by budget woes that forced Greece and Ireland to fall back on European and International Monetary Fund aid.

Confidence in Euro
“It is a sign of the confidence of Estonia toward the euro, despite the current difficulties, which will be a positive signal to the markets,” Joseph Daul of France, floor leader of center-right parties in the European Parliament, said in an e- mailed statement.

Estonia’s central bank chief, Andres Lipstok, 53, will join the European Central Bank’s policy-setting council, taking part in his first interest-rate vote on Jan. 13 in Frankfurt.

Some 85 million euro coins featuring a map of Estonia and 12 million banknotes go into circulation tomorrow, according to the central bank, starting a two-week phase out of the national currency, the kroon. One euro buys 15.6466 krooni.

The 1.3 million Estonians have little experience of monetary autonomy. In June 1992, less than a year after regaining independence from the Soviet Union, Estonia shifted from the Russian ruble to a national currency that it immediately pegged to the German mark. The exchange rate was locked to the euro when the first 11 countries began using it in 1999.

Western Anchor
Estonia in 2004 was in the initial wave of eastern European countries to join the EU, seeking a western anchor as an insurance policy against Russia. It entered the North Atlantic Treaty Organization the same year.

“Estonian policy has been to distance itself as quickly as possible from the former Soviet space or Russia and to integrate itself as completely as possible into western European organizations,” said Andres Kasekamp, a politics professor at Tartu University. “It was more aggressive than the other two Baltic states in this.”

Economic growth averaged 7.2 percent between 1995 and the onset of the global financial crisis in 2007. Reliant on foreign investment, Estonia was hit harder than most in the global slump, with the economy shrinking 5.1 percent in 2008 and 13.9 percent in 2009, the sharpest contraction since its transition to a market economy at the beginning of 1990s.

At the same time, inflation soared to 10.6 percent in 2008, missing one of the five economic tests for euro entry. The other targets are for deficits, debt, long-term interest rates and exchange-rate stability.
Fiscal Corset

While the deficit, at 2.8 percent of GDP in 2008, was under the euro’s 3 percent limit, Prime Minister Andrus Ansip’s government kept up the austerity drive. Tax increases, spending cuts and higher dividend collection from state-owned companies whittled the shortfall to an EU-estimated 1 percent in 2010. Poland’s deficit was 7.9 percent.

Unlike in Latvia or Lithuania, Estonia’s neighbors along the Baltic coast, the belt-tightening steps didn’t provoke public unrest. Growth rebounded to 2.4 percent in 2010 and will reach 4.4 percent next year, the EU predicts.

“The Estonian government early in the crisis realized that it provides a great window of opportunity,” Kasekamp said. “The austerity and cuts in the public sector were necessary anyhow, but to make it more palatable, the government created a vision that these cuts are in the name of joining the euro, so this became a light at the end of the tunnel.”

Kroon Nostalgia
Backing for the euro ebbed to 52 percent this month from a record 54 percent in November, according to a government- sponsored poll of 501 people with a margin of error of 4 percent. The Finance Ministry on Dec. 21 blamed the slippage on an early case of nostalgia for the soon-to-be abolished kroon.
By contrast, support for the single currency is plunging in Germany, which designed the euro as the successor to the low- inflation deutsche mark. Some 49 percent of Germans want to bring back the mark and only 41 percent want to keep the euro, according to a Bild newspaper poll last month.
“Estonia is too small to allow itself the luxury of full independence,” Finance Minister Jurgen Ligi said in Tallinn, the capital, on Dec. 21. “All European countries are in fact too small for this. We are not gambling anything.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Ott Ummelas in Tallinn at oummelas@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Willy Morris at wmorris@bloomberg.net

Provinces face tough financial choices in 2011

(The Globe and Mail)
After the recession and an orgy of stimulus spending, 2011 will be the year Canada’s provinces begin the hard job of restoring their financial health.

The provinces are on pace to ring up record combined deficits of $26.6-billion in fiscal 2010-11, a gap that has grown 20 times larger in the two years since the global economic collapse.

Just three provinces are expected to balance their budgets this year in 2010 – Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Newfoundland and Labrador – thanks to recovering resource prices and, in Alberta’s case, by dipping into a special reserve fund.

For the rest, the path back to budget balance will be long and fraught with hard choices between tax hikes, cuts to favourite programs and squeezing the civil service.

Ontario, for example, isn’t expecting to be back in the black for another seven years, and getting there will depend upon uncharacteristic spending restraint.

“Canadians may think we’re still living in the golden age, but times have changed,” warned Glen Hodgson, chief economist at the Conference Board of Canada.

It’s not clear Canadians are ready to have a “grown-up conversation about what sustainable fiscal policy looks like at the provincial level,” Mr. Hodgson said.

Experts say the conversation begins and ends with health care, which sucks up nearly half of every dollar the provinces spend (42 per cent). In Ontario, the ratio is even higher, at 46 per cent. And it’s an area many Canadians are loath to cut, particularly if it means longer wait times to see specialists, shuttered hospitals or fewer nurses.

“You can’t talk about fiscal policy in any province without talking about health care,” Mr. Hodgson said.
With the exception of Quebec, which has already moved to raise its sales tax and tackle health-care inflation, few provinces have clearly spelled out what they’re prepared to do to balance their budgets. It’s the “elephant in the room” that no one wants to confront, said Toronto-Dominion Bank economist Sonya Gulati.
“It’s easy on paper to say you’re going to cut health spending by 5 per cent, but where that’s coming from is the challenge,” she said.

Virtually all provinces are facing the prospect of limiting spending increases to 2 or 2.5 per cent a year for the foreseeable future, after nearly 15 years of spending excess. Health care outlays alone have been growing at a rate of 5 per cent to 7 per cent a year, and with the population aging, the pressure is intense to keep spending more.

Ontario Finance Minister Dwight Duncan has vowed to chop roughly a dozen provincial agencies and ban all perks for public-sector workers, such as golf memberships and season tickets to sporting events.
But he hasn’t said what those efforts might save.

At the same time, the province is still adding to spending. Ontario recently committed to giving residential and small-business customers a 10-per-cent break on their electricity bills for the next five years. That’s expected to cost $300-million in the current fiscal year, and at least $1.1-billion in the following years.

Adding to the provinces’ fiscal challenges are looming elections in 2011 in four provinces – Ontario, Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Prince Edward Island – and a leadership race in British Columbia.
“Fiscal austerity is going to be very challenging given the political climate,” Ms. Gulati said.

The result could push some of the tough choices to 2012 and beyond. Provinces may opt to lay out spending cuts and tax increases in this year’s budget, but delay their application until the following year.
“Government are in a bind,” Ms. Gulati acknowledged. “They want to make sure the recovery goes forward. On the other hand, they are saying ‘we have these large deficits and we need to make sure we remain creditworthy.’ It’s a balancing act.”

The good news is Canada and its provinces aren’t in the kind of fiscal mess facing the United States and many European countries. And while the combined provincial deficit is a record in nominal terms, it’s not nearly as large as it was in the mid-1990s.

Canada’s combined deficit-to-GDP ratio (including the federal and provincial governments) reached 5.4 per cent of gross domestic product in fiscal 2009-2010. That compares to nearly 9 per cent in the 1990s, and deficits of 12 per cent in Britain and 11 per cent in the U.S.

“We’re still in a manageable band for all the provinces in Canada,” said Mr. Hodgson of the Conference Board. “We’re certainly not Ireland or the U.K. But we have to take it seriously.”
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Canada's best and worst fiscal performers
Highest deficit-to-GDP (2010-11):
1. Ontario - 3.1 per cent
2. New Brunswick - 2.7 per cent
3. Quebec - 1.5 per cent
4. PEI - 1.1 per cent
5. British Columbia - 0.9 per cent
Highest debt-to-GDP (2010-11)
1. Quebec - 48.3 per cent
2. Nova Scotia - 39.6 per cent
3. Ontario - 36 per cent
4. New Brunswick - 33.5 per cent
5. Newfoundland - 35.2 per cent
Program expenses-to-GDP (2009-10)
1. PEI - 31.2 per cent
2. Newfoundland - 27.9 per cent
3. New Brunswick - 25.8 per cent
4. Nova Scotia - 23.7 per cent
5. Quebec - 20.4 per cent
Lowest deficit-to-GDP (2010-11)
1. Newfoundland - 0
2. Alberta - 0 (after using its “sustainability fund” to erase the deficit)
3. Saskatchewan - 0.1 per cent
4. Nova Scotia - 0.6 per cent
5. Manitoba - 0.8 per cent
Lowest debt-to-GDP (2010-11)
1. Alberta - 5.2 per cent
2. Saskatchewan - 6.7 per cent
3. British Columbia - 16 per cent
4. Manitoba - 25.4 per cent
5. PEI - 32.5 per cent
(Source: Toronto-Dominion Bank, Royal Bank of Canada, government estimates and forecasts)

Taiwan Steps Up Fight Against Inflows as Rate Raised

Taiwan unveiled additional measures to counter capital inflows as it raised borrowing costs for the third time this year and tightened lending rules to avert a property bubble.

Governor Perng Fai-nan and his board raised the discount rate on 10-day loans to banks by 0.125 percentage point to 1.625 percent. All 14 economists in a Bloomberg News survey predicted the decision, announced yesterday. The central bank increased the reserve requirement on some local-currency deposits by foreigners to as much as 90 percent, effective Jan. 1.

Taiwan joins neighbors from Thailand to South Korea in increasing interest rates to damp price pressures while stepping up efforts to counter inflows, which are stoking currency appreciation. The local dollar has risen the most in Asia against its U.S. counterpart in the past six months, and Perng said the gains will eventually hurt exports.

“The focus is really on dealing with asset-price inflation, particularly home prices,” said Tony Phoo, an economist at Standard Chartered Plc. in Taipei. A larger interest-rate increase might have “attracted more hot money flows,” he said.

The Taiwan dollar rose 0.5 percent to NT$30.217 against its U.S. counterpart at the 4 p.m. close, according to Taipei Forex Inc., after rallying as much as 4.2 percent to its strongest since October 1997. It has risen about 10 percent over the past six months. The benchmark Taiex stock index climbed 0.5 percent to close at 8,907.91.

The increase in the reserve requirement ratio announced yesterday applies to so-called local-currency “passbook” deposits held by foreigners, which can be withdrawn by the account holder without restriction.
Discouraging Deposits

A ratio of 25 percent will apply to existing deposits, while 90 percent will be imposed on any net increase in such deposits after Dec. 30, the central bank said.

The monetary authority also said it won’t pay lenders interest from Jan. 1 on reserves held for deposits from foreigners. It currently pays interest on 55 percent of the reserves.

“It’s a bit like capital control,” said Eric Hsing, a Taipei-based fixed-income trader at First Securities Inc. “The Taiwan dollar’s appreciation may stop, and the momentum could be changed.”

Some foreign investors may want to withdraw investment from Taiwan, and both the local dollar and domestic stocks may be affected, he said.

Currency appreciation risks crimping the trade gains that helped to fuel the island’s expansion this year and boosted earnings at companies such as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., the world’s largest custom manufacturer of chips. Exports are equivalent to about two-thirds of gross domestic product.

Export Competitiveness
The central bank said this week it will step up curbs on the use of exchange-rate derivatives to combat currency speculation by foreigners. The island last month also restricted offshore funds to investing no more than 30 percent of their portfolios into local government debt and money-market products.

“The Taiwan dollar’s rise will hurt export competitiveness sooner or later,” Perng said yesterday. The central bank has established a group to study the behavior of hedge funds, he also said.

Officials from Asia to Latin America have sought to curtail fund inflows, complaining the U.S. Federal Reserve’s plan to inject $600 billion into the world’s biggest economy may intensify capital flight to higher-yielding emerging markets.
Taiwan’s central bank has bought the U.S. dollar almost every day in the past eight months to protect exporters, according to traders who declined to be identified as the monetary authority doesn’t publicly disclose such details.

Home Prices
The central bank tightened the cap on second-home mortgages in the capital, Taipei, to 60 percent from the 70 percent imposed in June, and broadened it to other districts, while also limiting loans using land as collateral to 65 percent of the real estate’s value.
Targeted measures are more effective than rate increases in curbing housing speculation, Perng said after yesterday’s decision.

Property prices in the capital have advanced 11 percent in January through November to a record, Sinyi Realty Co.’s Chief Analyst Stanley Su said in a telephone interview this week.
Full-year economic growth will exceed 10 percent this year and the island faces inflation risks in 2011, Minister of Economic Affairs Shih Yen-shiang said this week. Inflation quickened to a nine-month high of 1.53 percent last month.

Lagging Behind
Taiwan has lagged behind some Asian counterparts in raising rates, even after increasing the benchmark by a combined 0.25 percentage point in June and September from a record low. Thailand has lifted its rate by 25 basis points three times this year to 2 percent, and the Reserve Bank of India has increased the repurchase rate by 150 basis points to 6.25 percent.

Recent reports signaled the $355.5 billion economy is weathering the rise in its currency, helped by demand from China, its biggest trading partner.

Industrial production growth accelerated to a three-month high in November, exports increased 21.8 percent from a year earlier and the unemployment rate fell to a two-year low. The island’s GDP increased 9.8 percent last quarter from a year earlier.

To contact the reporters on this story: Chinmei Sung in Taipei at csung4@bloomberg.net. Andrea Wong in Taipei at awong268@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Chris Anstey in Tokyo at canstey@bloomberg.net

AIG May Be Preparing to Sell $510 Million Blackstone Stake

American International Group Inc., the insurer that is divesting assets to repay billions of dollars in U.S. government aid, may be preparing to sell a $510 million dollar stake in Blackstone Group LP.

AIG, based in New York, notified Blackstone earlier this month that it will convert 35.7 million Blackstone partnership units into common shares, according to a Schedule 13G filed Dec. 17 with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Blackstone common shares, unlike the partnership units, trade on the New York Stock Exchange.

AIG, led by Robert Benmosche, is selling assets to repay a $182.3 billion U.S. rescue. AIG reaped a combined $36.7 billion by divesting its two largest overseas life-insurance divisions, AIA Group Ltd. and American Life Insurance Co., the firm said last month.

In September, the insurer agreed to sell two Japanese units for $4.8 billion, and Benmosche is seeking a buyer for Nan Shan Life Insurance Co. of Taiwan.

Mark Herr, an AIG spokesman, and Peter Rose, a spokesman for Blackstone, declined to comment.
AIG’s investment in Blackstone dates to July 1998, when the insurer announced that it would pay $150 million to acquire a 7 percent stake in the buyout firm, formed by Peter Peterson and Stephen Schwarzman in 1985 to provide merger advice. At the time, AIG also committed $1.2 billion to Blackstone buyout funds, the first of which was formed in 1987.

December Sale
In tandem with its June 2007 initial public offering, Blackstone said its existing owners, including Schwarzman and Peterson, would receive about $4.57 billion in cash and 847 million units in what are now four holding partnerships for the buyout firm’s operations. AIG was slated to receive 48.8 million partnership units at the time, according to a prospectus filed with the SEC on June 25, 2007.

The partnership units are exchangeable for common shares on a one-for-one basis. Blackstone had more than 700 million partnership units outstanding as of Sept. 30, according to the firm’s most recent quarterly report.

AIG in November notified Blackstone that it would exchange 10 million of its partnership units for an equal number of common shares, according to the Schedule 13G filed earlier this month. AIG received the 10 million shares on Dec. 15 and sold them the same day for $13.41 each, or a total of $134.1 million, according to a Form 4 filed with the SEC.

On Dec. 9, AIG notified Blackstone that it would exchange the remainder of its stake, consisting of 35.7 million partnership units, for common stock. AIG expects to receive the common shares on Feb. 9, according to the Schedule 13G.

AIG’s exchange of a combined 45.7 million partnership units will increase the number of Blackstone common shares outstanding by about 18 percent to 304.3 million, according to the Schedule 13G. The 35.7 million shares that Blackstone will receive equal about 11.7 percent of the outstanding common stock, adjusted for the conversions.

Blackstone common shares have increased about 9 percent so far this year. They fell 7 cents to $14.29 at 12:46 p.m. in composite trading on the New York Stock Exchange. At that price, AIG’s 35.7 million shares would be worth more than $510 million.

To contact the reporter on this story: Miles Weiss in Washington at mweiss@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story Christian Baumgaertel at cbaumgaertel@bloomberg.net.

Mortgage Rates for U.S. Loans Climb to 7-Month High

(Refer to the previous blog posting 'The Irony' for a related posting)

Mortgage rates for U.S. loans climbed to a seven-month high, increasing borrowing costs for homebuyers in a sluggish real estate market.

The average rate for a 30-year fixed loan rose to 4.86 percent in the week ended today from 4.81 percent, Freddie Mac said in a statement. The average 15-year rate advanced to 4.2 percent from 4.17 percent, the mortgage-finance company said.

Rising home loan rates may limit homebuyer demand as housing remains a weak link for the economy. Home prices in October fell 0.8 percent from a year earlier, the largest year- over-year decline since December 2009, the S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values showed this week.

“Optimism is fading from the housing market,” Robert Shiller, an economics professor at Yale University and co- creator of the index, said on Bloomberg Television on Dec. 28.

Sales of new and existing homes rose less than economists estimated in November even as mortgage rates sank to the lowest levels on record, reports from the Commerce Department and the National Association of Realtors showed last week.

Pending home sales climbed more than forecast in November, a sign demand is recovering following a post-tax credit plunge, according to a report from the Realtors group today. The data are based on contract signings, while existing-home sales represent closings.

The rate for a 30-year loan has climbed for six of the past seven weeks amid speculation that President Barack Obama’s agreement to a two-year tax cut extension will boost economic growth and inflation. The rise pushed the monthly cost of a $300,000 loan to $1,585 from $1,462.

Borrowing costs are still near historic lows. The 30-year fixed rate averaged about 4.7 percent in 2010, the lowest on an annual basis since 1955, Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, said in a statement today.

To contact the reporter on this story: Prashant Gopal in New York at Pgopal2@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Kara Wetzel in New York at kwetzel@bloomberg.net

Jobless Claims in U.S. Fall to Lowest Level Since July 2008

Initial U.S. jobless claims fell last week to the lowest level since July 2008, a sign that the labor market is improving heading into 2011.

First-time filings for unemployment insurance decreased by 34,000 to 388,000 in the week ended Dec. 25, compared with the median forecast of 415,000 in a Bloomberg News survey, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. There were no special factors behind the drop, an official at the agency said as the data were released.

A decline in firings is a necessary step toward the increased hiring needed to spur consumer spending, which accounts for 70 percent of the economy. At the same time, Federal Reserve officials say economic growth is falling short of the rate needed to reduce joblessness that’s hovering near 10 percent.

“Firms are a little more confident, they’re not laying off as many people as they have been,” said Jonathan Basile, an economist at Credit Suisse in New York. “We’re starting to see layoffs come down from earlier this year and that suggests that we’re in a transition period” to faster job growth, he said.

Estimates of initial claims in the Bloomberg survey of 28 economists ranged from 395,000 to 430,000. The Labor Department revised the prior week’s figures to 422,000 from a previously reported 420,000.
Stock-index futures pared losses after the report. The March contract on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell less than 0.1 percent to 1,255 at 8:44 a.m. in New York. The benchmark 10- year Treasury note declined, pushing up the yield to 3.38 percent from 3.35 percent late yesterday.

‘Nothing Unusual’
While the latest reporting week included the Christmas holiday, leaving jobless Americans with one less day to file for benefits, the Labor Department spokesman said there was “nothing unusual” in the data. The level of initial filings was the lowest since the week ended July 12, 2008. It was also the first time claims were below 400,000 since July 2008.

The four-week moving average, a less-volatile measure, dropped to 414,000 last week, the lowest since July 26, 2008, from 426,500, today’s data showed.

The number of people continuing to receive jobless benefits rose by 57,000 in the week ended Dec. 18 to 4.13 million. The continuing claims figure does not include the number of Americans receiving extended benefits under federal programs.

Those who’ve used up their traditional benefits and are now collecting emergency and extended payments decreased by about 151,500 to 4.53 million in the week ended Dec. 11.

Tax Cuts
President Barack Obama on Dec. 17 signed into law an $858 billion bill extending for two years Bush-era tax cuts for all income levels. The measure also continues expanded jobless insurance benefits to the long-term unemployed for 13 months and reduces payroll taxes for workers by two percentage points during 2011.

The unemployment rate among people eligible for benefits rose to 3.3 percent in the week ended Dec. 18, from 3.2 percent in the prior week, today’s report showed.
Thirty-three states and territories reported an increase in claims, while 20 reported a decline. These data are reported with a one-week lag.

Initial jobless claims reflect weekly firings and tend to fall as job growth -- measured by the monthly non-farm payrolls report -- accelerates. That relationship has broken down in recent months as some companies continue to cut staff and others expand, indicating an uneven recovery.

‘Recovery Is Continuing’
“The economic recovery is continuing, though at a rate that has been insufficient to bring down unemployment,” Fed officials said in a statement after their policy meeting on Dec. 14.

Businesses that are adding workers include Motorola Inc., the Schaumburg, Illinois-based maker of mobile phones.

“We have been” hiring, co-Chief Executive Officer Greg Brown said in a Bloomberg Television interview on Dec. 15. Even so, “we need to create jobs faster.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Timothy R. Homan in Washington at thoman1@bloomberg.net

2010년 12월 29일 수요일

U.K. Economy Faces `Worse' Year for Jobs on Government Cuts, CIPD Says

U.K. unemployment will rise in 2011 in what will be a “worse” year for hiring as the government cuts public jobs as part of plans to reduce the budget deficit, the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development said.
Payrolls will drop by 200,000 next year, with public-sector employment falling by 120,000 and private-sector jobs by 80,000, the London-based group said in a report today. Unemployment may rise to 9 percent, it said. Consumers’ spending power will also be eroded, with the CIPD forecasting below-inflation pay increases of 2 percent in 2011.

Prime Minister David Cameron’s plans to lower the budget gap will cost the economy about 330,000 government jobs by 2015, according to the Office for Budget Responsibility. Still, the watchdog has said the loss will be more than offset by the creation of about 1.5 million private-sector jobs.

“It will be a ‘fingers crossed’ year for the economy,” CIPD Chief Economic Adviser John Philpott said in the report. “This doesn’t mean that we are facing a return to the dire recession days of late 2008 and 2009, but nonetheless 2011 will probably feel like another year in the economic doldrums, rather than the start of a return to prosperity.”

While jobless claims fell for a second month in November, according to a Dec. 15 report, the decline was less economists forecast in a Bloomberg News survey. In the quarter through October, unemployment measured by International Labour Organization methods rose by 35,000 to 2.5 million people and the jobless rate increased to 7.9 percent.

Also in November, inflation unexpectedly accelerated to 3.3 percent, the fastest in six months. The Bank of England forecasts that annual consumer-price growth will remain above its 2 percent target through 2011.
“Most workers will feel a squeeze in their real living standards, with pay rises still relatively modest against a backdrop of higher prices,” Philpott said. It will be a “jobs light-pay tight” year.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Fergal O’Brien in London at fobrien@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: John Fraher at jfraher@bloomberg.net

South Korea's Factory Output, Current-Account Surplus Signal Higher Rates

South Korea’s industrial production increased for the 17th straight month and the current account may post a $29 billion surplus this year, supporting the case for the central bank to increase borrowing costs again.

Factory output rose 10.4 percent in November from a year earlier, Statistics Korea said in Gwacheon today. The current- account surplus is expected to widen “a lot” in December after narrowing to a seven-month low of $1.93 billion last month on rising imports, the Bank of Korea said separately.

The data signal exports are weathering a 35 percent appreciation in the nation’s currency against the dollar since March last year, the biggest in Asia. Moves to pare the gain by reviving taxes on overseas investment in government debt and discouraging foreign-currency speculation contributed to the won’s steepest decline in six months in November.

“The won’s recent weakness due to capital controls is apparently helping exports hold up,” said Kong Dong Rak, a fixed-income analyst at Taurus Investment & Securities Co. in Seoul. “Given solid economic growth and growing inflation pressures, the central bank will likely discuss a rate increase next month and act in February.”

The won rose 0.6 percent to 1,139.75 as of 12:03 p.m. in Seoul, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The currency fell 2.9 percent in November, the steepest drop since May. The benchmark Kospi stock index was little changed.

‘Robust’ Exports
The current-account surplus “is expected to widen a lot next month as exports remain robust,” Lee Young Bog, an official at the Bank of Korea, said in Seoul today. “This year’s total surplus won’t be much different from the $29 billion forecast earlier this month.”

The central bank left the nation’s benchmark interest rate at 2.5 percent on Dec. 9 after raising borrowing costs by 0.25 percentage point in each of July and November from a record-low 2 percent. The benchmark lags behind last month’s 3.3 percent pace of inflation.

Officials from Brazil to Taiwan and Thailand are trying to curb currency gains driven by capital inflows. They have faulted the U.S. Federal Reserve’s plan to inject $600 billion into the world’s biggest economy for threatening to depress the dollar and intensifying capital flight to their higher-yielding markets.

South Korea said earlier this month that it aims to apply a levy on banks’ foreign-exchange borrowings, will strengthen punishment for inappropriate reporting of currency trades and may tighten rules on derivatives in a bid to control incoming foreign funds and prevent sudden capital flight.

Imports Climb
November’s current-account surplus compared with a revised $4.89 billion in October, the Bank of Korea said in a statement in Seoul today. The current account is the broadest measure of international trade, tracking goods, services and investment income.

Total exports on a customs-cleared basis, which excludes ships, rose 23.6 percent last month from a year earlier, while imports climbed 32.7 percent, according to the statement.
The increase in industrial production followed a 13.5 percent rise in October, Statistics Korea said. Output advanced 1.4 percent in November from October.

Exports account for about half of South Korea’s economy and have boosted earnings this year at companies including Samsung Electronics Co., Asia’s biggest maker of semiconductors, flat screens and mobile phones.
Gross domestic product increased 4.4 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier. It is set to rise 4.5 percent in 2011, while consumer prices may increase 3.5 percent next year, from 2.9 percent in 2010, according to the central bank.

To contact the reporters on this story: Eunkyung Seo in Seoul at eseo3@bloomberg.net; William Sim in Seoul at wsim2@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Chris Anstey at canstey@bloomberg.net

South Korea Limits Banks' Access to Currency Derivatives After Won Gains

South Korea plans to tighten curbs on banks’ holdings of foreign-exchange derivatives, lowering existing limits by a fifth, according to an official at the country’s financial regulator.

Local branches of overseas banks will be allowed to hold contracts equivalent to no more than 200 percent of their equity capital, down from 250 percent currently, and the cap for domestic banks will be cut to 40 percent from 50 percent, said the Financial Supervisory Service official, who declined to be identified because the plan isn’t public yet. The finance ministry will announce the changes in January, he said.

Nations from China to South Africa are striving to limit currency volatility as near-zero borrowing costs in the U.S. and Japan spur demand for higher-yielding assets in emerging-markets. South Korea’s existing limits on banks’ use of currency derivatives took effect in October and are subject to review every three months.

“They’re obviously concerned about trying to control capital inflows and limit the impact this could have on the currency,” said Brian Jackson, Hong Kong-based senior strategist at Royal Bank of Canada. “But I’m a little bit skeptical that this is a really big deal. I think it’s already been pretty well-flagged in advance and the market has sort of accepted that there are going to be a few limited measures.”

The Korea Economic Daily newspaper reported the planned tightening two days ago, citing unidentified officials at the finance ministry and the Bank of Korea, and said the new limits on derivatives holdings will probably take effect in March.

Limited Impact
The planned changes aren’t expected to have much impact as foreign banks’ local branches currently have contracts totaling no more than 150 percent of their equity capital and domestic banks’ holdings are 10 percent or less, the Financial Supervisory Service official said. Exporter demand for currency- hedging products is also unlikely to be affected, he said.

The government earlier this month said it will impose a levy on banks’ foreign-exchange borrowings to help curb capital flows. The National Assembly on Dec. 8 passed a bill that will from Jan. 1 restore taxes on foreign investors’ holdings of the nation’s bonds.

The Korean won rose 0.1 percent today to close at 1,146.35 per dollar in Seoul, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The currency has gained 1.5 percent so far this year and, according to analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, will gain 9.2 percent by the end of 2011.

To contact the reporter on this story: Seonjin Cha in Seoul at scha2@bloomberg.net Frances Yoon in Seoul at fyoon2@bloomberg.net.
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Philip Lagerkranser at lagerkranser@bloomberg.net Sandy Hendry at shendry@bloomberg.net.

Indonesia Tightens Rules on Foreign Exchange Holdings, Overseas Borrowing

Indonesia said it will tighten rules on banks’ foreign-exchange holdings and overseas borrowing to cope with capital inflows that have pushed up inflation and strengthened the rupiah this year.

Bank Indonesia will also reintroduce a 30 percent cap on lenders’ short-term overseas borrowing to minimize the risk of sudden capital outflows, it said yesterday. Banks must set aside 5 percent of their total foreign-exchange holdings as reserves as of March 2011, from 1 percent currently, Deputy Governor Budi Mulya said at a press briefing in Jakarta yesterday. The reserve requirement will rise to 8 percent effective June.

“These rules will ease pressure on the rupiah,” said Anton Gunawan, chief economist at Jakarta-based PT Bank Danamon Indonesia. “The central bank wants to absorb excess liquidity in the banking system.”
Indonesia and its peers are grappling with increasing capital inflows as borrowing costs and growth rates that are higher than those of developed economies boost the appeal of emerging-market assets. Taiwan tightened curbs on exchange-rate derivatives this week and South Korea plans similar measures, according to an official at the country’s financial regulator.

The rupiah rose to a one-month high today, helped by demand for higher-yielding assets. The currency climbed 0.3 percent to 8,973 per dollar as of 11:12 a.m. in Jakarta, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s the strongest level since Nov. 29.

Delayed Impact
The steps by the central bank “will be implemented in March; that is why it is not having an impact on the currency,” said Lindawati Susanto, head of foreign-exchange trading at PT Bank Resona Perdania in Jakarta. “The liquidity will be drying up next year.”

The benchmark Jakarta Composite Index of stocks has surged 47 percent in the past year and was up 0.4 percent at 11:24 a.m. today. It is among the top 10 performing equity indices in the world this year, together with those in Sri Lanka, Peru, Thailand and the Philippines.

Bank Indonesia has resisted imposing capital controls or raising its benchmark interest rate from a record-low 6.5 percent, choosing instead to increase bank reserve requirements and encourage investors to keep their money in the country for longer periods.

The current benchmark rate is consistent with Indonesia’s goal of achieving inflation of 4 percent to 6 percent in 2011 and 3.5 percent to 5.5 percent in 2012, Mulya said yesterday.

Absorb Liquidity
The higher foreign-exchange reserve ratios may absorb as much as $3 billion in excess liquidity, and are “prudent banking” measures aimed at helping Southeast Asia’s largest economy cope with capital inflows, Mulya said.

“If money is pulled into the reserve requirement then it cannot circulate within the system,” said Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa, an economist at PT Danareksa Research Institute in Jakarta. “That’s a disincentive to avoid banks attracting too much dollar since they must pay interest on that dollar whereas the money is put away at Bank Indonesia, which may not even earn interest.”

Lenders will be required to limit their short-term overseas borrowing to no more than 30 percent of their capital starting in January, the central bank said. The rule aims to encourage a shift to long-term foreign borrowing and reduce the risk of sudden reversals in capital flows, it said. The requirement was scrapped in 2008 because of the global financial crisis.

Korea, Taiwan
South Korea plans to tighten curbs on banks’ holdings of foreign-exchange derivatives, lowering existing limits by a fifth, according to an official at the Financial Supervisory Service, who declined to be identified because the plan isn’t public yet. The finance ministry will announce the changes in January, he said.

Taiwan’s curbs on derivatives will help to combat currency speculation by foreigners, the central bank said this week. The island last month also restricted offshore funds to investing no more than 30 percent of their portfolios in local government debt and money-market products.

Five state-owned Indonesian financial institutions, including PT Bank Mandiri, have given their commitment to buy back bonds to ease the impact of sudden capital outflows during a crisis, Agus Suprijanto, acting head of fiscal policy at the Finance Ministry, said this week. The government is still in talks over the use of their funds and will prioritize funding from the state budget for any buybacks, he added.

Indonesia will also require lenders with assets of at least 10 trillion rupiah ($1 billion) to announce their prime lending rates, effective in March 2011. This rule will push banks to decrease their net interest margin and become more efficient, the central bank said. Lending growth may reach 22 percent this year, it said.


To contact the reporter on this story: Novrida Manurung in Jakarta at nmanurung@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Chris Anstey at canstey@bloomberg.net; Greg Ahlstrand at gahlstrand@bloomberg.net

China Manufacturing Growth Slows as Policy Tightened

China’s manufacturing growth slowed for the first time in five months in December as the government tightened monetary policy and chased energy- efficiency and pollution targets, a survey indicated.

A purchasing managers’ index released today by HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics fell to 54.4 from 55.3 in November. The data are seasonally adjusted and a reading above 50 indicates an expansion.

Rising corporate profits and expansions by companies including Aluminum Corp of China Ltd. and Volkswagen AG may help to sustain manufacturing as the government curbs lending to counter inflation.

Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan Chase & Co. forecast interest rates will rise at least twice in the first half of 2011 after an increase on Christmas Day that was the second since the global financial crisis.

“Inflation rather than growth still remains as the top policy concern, despite the moderation in December’s manufacturing PMI reading,” said Qu Hongbin, Hong Kong-based China economist for HSBC. “Modest” interest-rate increases are needed to anchor inflation expectations in coming months, Qu said.

The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.4 percent as of the 11:30 a.m. local time break in trading. The yuan touched 6.6142 per dollar, the strongest since 1993.

Switch From Contraction
While today’s PMI reading was the weakest in three months, it compares with a contraction as recently as July. For the fourth quarter as a whole, the index had the strongest performance since the first three months of this year, HSBC said in a statement.

The measure is based on a survey of executives at more than 430 companies and gives an indication of activity in the manufacturing sector. A separate government-backed PMI is due Jan. 1.

Higher interest rates, a crackdown on real-estate speculation, and closures of energy-wasting and highly polluting factories are among measures by Premier Wen Jiabao’s government that may cool growth. Officials have also boosted reserve requirements for lenders six times this year to counter inflation and limit asset bubbles in the real- estate market.

Export Orders
New export orders rose “only modestly,” indicating that growth centered on the domestic market, the bank said, without giving numbers.

The report contained some encouraging signs for policy makers, with input and output costs rising at a slower pace and job creation quickening to the fastest since June, HSBC said. Still, the inflation measures remain elevated, the bank said.

Today’s data “suggests industrial production momentum is still strong, though sentiment may have been weakened a bit by recent tightening measures and companies’ lingering concern over how such tightening is going to play out,” said Li Wei, Shanghai-based economist with Standard Chartered Bank.
Industrial companies’ profits climbed 49 percent in the first 11 months of 2010 to 3.88 trillion yuan ($585 billion), according to a Dec. 27 government report.

The economy grew 9.6 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier. Consumer prices climbed 5.1 percent in November from a year earlier, the most in 28 months, and producer prices gained 6.1 percent.

Inflation Fight
Peng Sen, vice chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission, said the nation must prepare for a long- term fight against inflation, according to a Dec. 21 report on state television.

Companies in China, the world’s biggest maker of steel, cement and mobile phones, are expanding after exports topped pre-crisis levels. The momentum of economic growth is “consolidating,” the central bank said Dec. 27.

Aluminum Corp. of China, or Chalco, will build a 17.5 billion yuan base that includes alumina and aluminum smelting plants and a bauxite mine in the southwestern Guizhou province, according to a statement in the government-run People’s Daily newspaper.

German carmaker VW’s two joint ventures in China will spend 10.6 billion euros ($14 billion) in the world’s biggest auto market through 2015, adding two factories to help double production to 3 million cars a year, the company said last month.


--Zheng Lifei. With assistance from Sophie Leung in Hong Kong and Li Yanping in Beijing. Editors: Paul Panckhurst, Ken McCallum
To contact Bloomberg News staff for this story: Zheng Lifei in Beijing at +86-10-6649-7560 or lzheng32@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Chris Anstey at canstey@bloomberg.net

Dodging Repatriation Tax Lets Companies Bring Home Cash

At the White House on Dec. 15, business executives asked President Obama for a tax holiday that would help them tap more than $1 trillion of offshore earnings, much of it sitting in island tax havens.

The money -- including hundreds of billions in profits that U.S. companies attribute to overseas subsidiaries to avoid taxes -- is supposed to be taxed at up to 35 percent when it’s brought home, or “repatriated.”

Executives including John T. Chambers of Cisco Systems Inc. say a tax break would return a flood of cash and boost the economy.

What nobody’s saying publicly is that U.S. multinationals are already finding legal ways to avoid that tax. Over the years, they’ve brought cash home, tax-free, employing strategies with nicknames worthy of 1970s conspiracy thrillers -- including “the Killer B” and “the Deadly D.”

Merck & Co Inc., the second-largest drugmaker in the U.S., last year brought more than $9 billion from abroad without paying any U.S. tax to help finance its acquisition of Schering-Plough Corp., securities filings show. Merck is also appealing a federal judge’s 2009 finding that Schering-Plough owed taxes on $690 million it had earlier brought home from overseas tax-free.

The largest drugmaker, Pfizer Inc., imported more than $30 billion from offshore in connection with its acquisition of Wyeth last year, while taking steps to minimize the tax hit on its publicly reported profit.
Disclosures in Switzerland and Delaware by Eli Lilly & Co. show the Indianapolis-based pharmaceutical company carried out many of the steps for a tax-free importation of foreign cash after its roughly $6 billion purchase of ImClone Systems Inc. in 2008.

‘Trivially Small Taxes’
“Sophisticated U.S. companies are routinely repatriating hundreds of billions of dollars in foreign earnings and paying trivially small U.S. taxes on those repatriations,” said Edward D. Kleinbard, a law professor at the University of Southern California in Los Angeles. “They devote enormous resources first to moving income to tax havens, and then to bringing those profits back to the U.S. at the lowest possible tax cost.”

With the exception of the Schering-Plough case, no authority has accused Merck or Pfizer or Lilly of paying less tax than they should have. While corporations have no obligation to pay any more than the legal minimum, “the question is what should that minimum be?” said Kleinbard, a former corporate tax attorney at Cleary Gottlieb Steen & Hamilton LLP and former chief of staff at the congressional Joint Committee on Taxation.

U.S. companies overall use various repatriation strategies to avoid about $25 billion a year in federal income taxes, he said.

‘Best of Worlds’
“The current U.S. international tax system is the best of all worlds for U.S. multinationals,” said David S. Miller, a partner at Cadwalader, Wickersham & Taft LLP in New York. That’s because the companies can defer federal income taxes by shifting profits into low-tax jurisdictions abroad, and then use foreign tax credits to shelter those earnings from U.S. tax when they repatriate them, he said.

They’re aided by a cadre of attorneys, accountants and investment bankers in the tax-planning industry -- such as a panel of KPMG LLP tax advisers who held forth in a chilly hotel ballroom at a Philadelphia conference last month. There, they discussed a series of techniques for multinationals to return cash from overseas while avoiding or deferring the taxes.

KPMG tax advisers Kevin Glenn and Tom Zollo used slides to describe several methods. One diagram resembled a schematic from the Manhattan Project. Another strategy would require certain “bells and whistles” to convince regulators of an actual non-tax business purpose, Glenn explained.

Cat and Mouse
Such maneuvers reflect a decades-long cat-and-mouse game. As regulators and lawmakers tighten the rules, companies seek new, legal methods for getting around them. One of the techniques the KPMG advisers discussed was in response to loophole-closers Congress passed in August to address a projected $1.4 trillion federal budget deficit. The changes will make it harder for companies to manipulate the credits they get for taxes paid overseas.

“Some of the best minds in the country are spent all day, every day, wheedling nickels and dimes out of the tax system,” said H. David Rosenbloom, an attorney at Caplin & Drysdale in Washington, D.C., and director of the international tax program at New York University’s school of law.

Chambers, Cisco’s chief executive officer, brought up a repatriation break during the White House meeting, according to a person familiar with the discussion. It could reprise a 2004 tax holiday that allowed multinationals to return profits to the U.S. at a tax rate of 5.25 percent. U.S. corporations brought home $362 billion, with $312 billion qualifying for the relief, according to the Internal Revenue Service.

Short-Term Fix
Such a move “is a short-term fix to a long-term problem, which is the uncompetitive U.S. tax structure,” said Cisco spokeswoman Jennifer Greeson Dunn. The San Jose, California-based company reported $31.6 billion of undistributed foreign earnings, on which it had paid no U.S. taxes, as of July 31.

President Obama, who campaigned in part against companies’ use of offshore havens to avoid U.S. taxes, asked Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner to follow up on the issue with business leaders, according to a White House official who asked not to be identified because the discussions were private.

The argument that a new tax break for offshore earnings would generate a domestic stimulus “holds no water at all,” said Joel B. Slemrod, an economics professor at the University of Michigan’s school of business and former senior tax economist for President Reagan’s Council of Economic Advisers. U.S. companies are already sitting on a record pile of cash -- $1.9 trillion in liquid assets, according to Federal Reserve data.

‘Cash Hoards’
“The fact that they have these cash hoards suggests that investment is not being constrained by lack of cash,” Slemrod said.

U.S. multinationals boost earnings by shifting income out of the country via transfer pricing, a system that allows them to allocate costs to subsidiaries in high-tax countries and profits to tax havens. Google Inc., for example, cut its taxes by $3.1 billion in the last three years by moving most of the income it attributed overseas ultimately to Bermuda, Bloomberg News reported in October.

The tax benefits from such profit shifting can have a greater impact on share price than boosting sales or cutting other expenses, since the reduced rate goes straight to the bottom line, said John P. Kennedy, a partner at Deloitte Tax LLP, speaking at the conference in Philadelphia Nov. 3.

Boosting Share Prices
For a hypothetical company that has 1,000 shares outstanding, has pretax income of $5,000 and trades at 20 times earnings, cutting just 2 percentage points off the rate could drive the share price up $2, Kennedy said.

“You may think two bucks isn’t much, but when you’re the CFO and she has 100,000 options, that’s pretty interesting,” he said. He cited large pharmaceutical and biotech companies, including Merck, Amgen Inc. and Eli Lilly, which have reported effective income tax rates at least 10 percentage points below the statutory 35 percent rate.

The bottom line: The effective tax rate “is, and will continue to be, the metric that is used to judge your performance,” he told the audience of corporate tax accountants and attorneys.

U.S. drugmakers shift profits overseas far in excess of actual sales there. In 2008, large U.S. pharmaceutical
companies reported about four-fifths of their pre-tax income abroad, up from about a third in 1997, according to a March article in the journal Tax Notes by Martin A. Sullivan, a contributing editor and former U.S. Treasury Department tax economist. Their actual foreign sales grew more slowly, to 52 percent from 38 percent.

Stranded Cash
Deloitte’s Kennedy warned that booking large portions of income overseas can mean “you are going to strand so much cash offshore that your business chokes.” That’s because the foreign profits cannot be used for such purposes as building domestic factories without triggering federal tax. Overall, U.S. companies reported more than $1 trillion in such “indefinitely reinvested earnings” offshore at the end of 2009, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Last year, Merck, based in Whitehouse Station, New Jersey, tapped its offshore cash, tax-free, to pay for just over half the cash portion of its $51 billion merger with Schering-Plough, according to company filings.
At the deal’s closing, Merck’s foreign subsidiaries lent $9.4 billion to a pair of Schering-Plough Dutch units. Then the Dutch companies used those funds to repay a pre-existing loan from their U.S. parent, securities filings show. The $9.4 billion ended up with Schering-Plough shareholders as part of the cash owed under the merger, according to the company’s disclosure.

No Tax Hit
Bottom line: Merck used its overseas cash to pay the former Schering-Plough shareholders -- with no U.S. tax hit. In considering whether companies owe taxes in such cases, the IRS often asks whether payments from an offshore unit constitute a dividend, which would be taxable.
In Merck’s case, it arguably could be, said Robert Willens, who runs an independent firm that advises investors on tax issues.

“Merck was obligated to pay Schering-Plough shareholders and they tapped into the funds of their overseas subsidiaries to do it,” he said. “You’d have to be concerned about a constructive dividend there.”
Merck objected to any characterization of the payment as a dividend. “We don’t think the characterization is accurate and we remain confident with our tax position,” said Steven Campanini, a company spokesman.

On Appeal
In the Schering-Plough case decided last year, the drugmaker brought home $690 million tax-free as a result of assigning its rights to income from a complex interest-rate swap to a foreign subsidiary in the 1990s. A judge found the company “failed to establish a genuine purpose for the transactions other than tax avoidance” and said Schering-Plough was not entitled to $473 million in back taxes in dispute. Merck is appealing the judgment.

Even when companies pay large tax bills to import their foreign profits, they find ways to minimize the impact on the earnings they show investors. Last year, New York-based Pfizer repatriated more than $30 billion from offshore to help pay for its $64 billion purchase of Wyeth, according to company disclosures and a person familiar with the transaction.

The acquisition created a so-called deferred tax liability on Pfizer’s balance sheet of about $25 billion, according to securities filings, in part to allow for an anticipated tax hit on the earnings that would be repatriated.

Impact Wiped Out
While bringing home more than $30 billion helped generate a $10 billion tax obligation, Pfizer was able to draw down $10 billion of its new deferred liability through its income statement. Doing so wiped out the tax impact of the repatriation on its earnings reported to shareholders.
So while the company paid a real tax bill to the U.S. government stemming from the repatriation, that tax payment had limited impact on its publicly reported profits.

Pfizer made use of a legal accounting quirk that allowed it to set up the deferred liability on its balance sheet, but reverse part of that liability through its income statement, said Edmund Outslay, a professor of tax accounting at Michigan State University.

“Had Pfizer repatriated these earnings independently of the purchase of Wyeth, it would have incurred a huge tax charge” on its income statement, Outslay said. “So through the magic of purchase accounting, you create an opportunity to bring this money home while mitigating its impact on your effective tax rate.”

Effective Tax Rate
Pfizer spokeswoman Joan Campion said the $10 billion tax hit was indeed erased on the income statement because of the accounting treatment, but noted that the company’s effective tax rate rose in 2009 in part because Wyeth’s overseas profits were repatriated to help finance the deal.
Other strategies based on acquisitions have achieved nickname status among corporate tax advisers.

The “Killer B” maneuver is named for section 368(a)(1)(B) of the Internal Revenue Code, which deals with tax-free reorganizations. A U.S. company using the technique would sell its shares to an offshore subsidiary, bringing cash back to the U.S. tax-free. The offshore unit could then use the stock to make an acquisition. In 2006, the IRS issued a notice aimed at shutting down the maneuver.

Using a Variation
International Business Machines Corp. used a variation on the technique in May 2007, with an offshore unit purchasing the shares from a trio of banks, according to a company securities filing. That permutation wasn’t covered by the IRS in 2006. Two days after IBM’s disclosure, the agency announced plans for additional rule changes addressing stock sales to subsidiaries from shareholders as well as directly from parent companies.

The “Deadly D,” also named for a section of tax law, allows a U.S. company to attach the high tax basis in a newly acquired company to one of its existing foreign units. In some cases, doing so enables the U.S. parent to pull cash from the subsidiary up to the amount of the recent purchase price tax-free. The Obama administration has proposed changing the provision that enables the maneuver.

Lilly closed on its purchase of ImClone in November 2008. The next month, the newly acquired company converted to an LLC and Lilly transferred the investment to its main Swiss subsidiary, Eli Lilly SA, according to disclosures in Switzerland and Delaware. The transfer was in exchange for a $5.8 billion note payable to the U.S. parent company due at the end of 2011.

Extracting Earnings
Willens, the independent tax adviser, said the steps indicated a likely D reorganization, or another method “to extract earnings from overseas without tax consequences -- of course.” Lilly had no comment beyond its filings, said David P. Lewis, the company’s vice president for global taxes.

The KPMG panel discussion in Philadelphia, called “Global Cash Tax Management Plans and Repatriation Planning,” dissected other techniques, including one that took six slides to explain. It works like this:
Soon after a U.S. multinational has purchased another U.S. company, the new unit promises to pay the parent a large amount of cash pursuant to a note agreement. Since both parties are U.S. companies, there is no tax bill for the parent under current U.S. law.

Then the new acquisition converts to a foreign company. So when the payment pursuant to the note is made, it comes from overseas. That means the foreign cash is treated as a nontaxable payment under the note, instead of a taxable dividend.

Going Offshore
The newly converted foreign subsidiary could access the multinational’s existing offshore cash by borrowing from a foreign sister unit, said Glenn, the KPMG tax partner. He and Zollo were joined by colleague Frank Mattei, as well as Don Whitt, a Pfizer tax official.

“This basic transaction is something that at least a couple of taxpayers have done, and I know a number of others have evaluated,” Glenn said. The strategy’s name follows the alphabetic tradition of Bs and Ds. It’s called “the Outbound F.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Jesse Drucker in New York at jdrucker4@bloomberg.net.
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Gary Putka at gputka@bloomberg.net.

Sweden Shows Central Bankers How to Fight Next Asset Bubble

Sweden’s central bank may set the direction for other policy makers as it looks beyond conventional inflation targets to asset-price growth in an effort to prevent the next bubble.

“Not countering asset-price increases has been the conventional wisdom among central banks, but what has it actually resulted in?” said Tina Mortensen, an economist at Citigroup Inc. in London. “Surely the current crisis has made central bankers rethink policy; Sweden is actually facing this problem” because “asset prices and monetary policy are a hot topic,” she said.

Riksbank Governor Stefan Ingves has raised the repo rate four times since July even as inflation remains below the bank’s 2 percent target. The increases occurred as house prices move above pre-crisis levels and credit growth hovers near 9 percent. While Sweden raises rates, the U.S., the euro region, Japan and the U.K. are keeping borrowing costs at record lows.

The financial crisis that started more than two years ago was exacerbated by central banks holding rates too low as inflation gauges failed to capture asset-price growth, according to Johnny Akerholm, president of the Helsinki-based Nordic Investment Bank. He says most policy makers are repeating the mistake.

“We are practically re-running the same situation these days,” he said in his bank’s Dec. 17 newsletter. “Rates are low and the central banks are ‘printing money’ while virtually all prices, except the consumer prices in industrial countries, are increasing rapidly.”

Rates ‘Normalized’
Policy makers in Europe and the U.S. have started to warn of the risks associated with low rates. Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Andrew Sentance voted for a seventh month to raise the benchmark from a record-low 0.5 percent at the bank’s Dec. 9 meeting. Paul Fisher, the bank’s markets director, told the Daily Telegraph last week that rates should be “normalized” to about 5 percent.

European Central Bank Executive Board member Juergen Stark says monetary policy should address the threat of financial imbalances and wants forecasting models to provide broader gauges of the economy. He’s spent the past year warning that an extension of the ECB’s liquidity program risks sowing “the seeds for new imbalances.”

Still, ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said as recently as Dec. 2 the bank will keep providing emergency funds to banks through the first quarter. The ECB’s benchmark rate has remained at a record low 1 percent since May 2009.

Mopping Up Bubbles
In the U.S., Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig said this month the “continued high level of monetary accommodation” may “destabilize the economy.” The Fed has kept its main rate at zero to 0.25 percent since December 2008. The Fed said last month it will buy $600 billion of Treasuries through June, helping keep yields low.

“There’s a risk that if policy makers react to a bubble bursting by aggressively loosening monetary policy, it may lead to new damaging bubbles emerging,” said Ben May, an economist at Capital Economics Ltd. in London. “The conventional wisdom amongst policy makers has been that you shouldn’t lean on bubbles and that the best thing to do is just to try to mop them up when they burst. In hindsight, that looks like a mistake.”
Swedish headline inflation has lagged behind the Riksbank’s target since December 2008. Inflation adjusted for mortgage costs will remain below target through 2013, the bank estimates.

Growth vs Debt
House prices, by contrast, rose for a 19th consecutive month in the quarter through November, gaining at an annual rate of 5 percent. The Riksbank, which raised its repo rate to 1.25 percent on Dec. 15, said then higher rates are needed to slow credit growth.

The bank is also trying to steer the fastest economic rebound in the European Union as it estimates growth of 5.5 percent this year. It expects the repo rate to average 3.3 percent in 2013, while economic growth will slow to 2.3 percent in 2012.

“The focus on issues such as the level of household debt suggests the Riksbank might rather have a period of slightly weaker growth or below-target inflation than a surge in indebtedness and perhaps another boom in house prices,” May said.

Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said in a Nov. 16 speech that policy makers “have to keep an open mind” on the possibility of using interest rates to pop asset bubbles. He added that the “best approach here, if at all possible, is to use supervisory and regulatory methods.”

Bypassing Rules
Outside Europe and the U.S., Bank of Israel Governor Stanley Fischer has incorporated bubble fighting into policy in a country where housing supply is shaped by government control of land. Fischer, who also oversees Israel’s banking regulation, left the benchmark rate at 2 percent this week in part because house prices cooled.

According to Mortensen at Citigroup, regulation alone has done little to cool Sweden’s house-price growth. Banks, which have had to cap mortgage lending at 85 percent of a property’s value since Oct. 1, “just seem to come up with alternative products” to bypass the rule, Mortensen said.
“I wouldn’t be surprised, given what we have just been through, if this leads to some kind of rethinking, also globally,” she said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Kati Pohjanpalo in Helsinki at kpohjanpalo@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Tasneem Brogger at tbrogger@bloomberg.net